Monday, October 24, 2005

What's the Matter with South Carolina?

One of the things that we kept hearing after last year's presidential election was how the fastest growing states (both in terms of economy and population) voted overwhelmingly for Republicans, while most of the stagnant states went to the Democrats. Some pundits see this as a sign that the Republican party will only keep growing in strength, but I have a slightly different take on it, a take that seems to have been validated in South Carolina. If the so-called red states continue to outpace their blue counterparts in economic development, they will continue to draw population from them, which will most likely dilute their Republican majorities. I'm not predicting the South Carolina is going to vote for Hillary in '08, but the influx of blue staters will probably change the kinds of campaigns that candidates of both parties run in South Carolina.


MDS said...

What's interesting about South Carolina isn't so much the prospect of it turning into a blue state as the prospect of it turning into a Giuliani/McCain Republican state rather than a Bush/Thurmond Republican state. I think the best thing that could happen for our country would be a Republican who's unacceptable to the religious right winning the Republican nomination, and if such a Republican could win South Carolina, that would be a huge step in the right direction.

dhodge said...

I agree, I don't think the deep south is going to start voting like the northeast, but voting patterns change over time and a large influx of people with different political perspectives than the local population can hasten that change.

I agree that your scenario would be great news, but who knows what's going to happen between now and then. McCain has already come out in favor of teaching intelligent design, but that might be more a populist move seeing how much support there is for teaching alternatives to evolution. Ultimately, I think that Republicans will stick with the status quo until the Democrats give them a scare.